Business Plan

When developing a business plan, the first stage is to identify and classify risks through risk analysis. Particular care should be exercised to the risks, the probability of occurrence is high, as well as those risks that can inflict maximum damage on the project. Having selected the most important risks are transferred to their quantitative analysis. The most important element of quantitative risk analysis is a sensitivity analysis. For its implementation shall be povarirovat various parameters project (prices, sales, construction period, inflation, etc.) and see how this changes performance. At the same time identifying the most critical parameters that may be most affected on the effectiveness of the project.

At the same time limits and calculated break-even point, ie actually reveals a lot of parameters of the project when the project will be effective and set the parameters of the project, in which he will be ineffective. Examines the range of possible values of uncertain parameters and, consequently, the extent of possible adverse scenarios of the development project. In the quantitative analysis Risk assessment is also expected effect (integral index) of the project, taking into account the quantitative characteristics of uncertainty (probability distribution, the range of changes of undetermined parameters, etc.). Based on the integrated performance of projects are subject to risks can make management decisions about the feasibility of the project, to compare projects with each other, etc. Today the most effective is a comprehensive approach to risk analysis.

On the one hand, this approach provides a more complete picture of the possible outcome of the project, ie all positive and negative surprises awaiting investors, on the other hand, makes possible a wide application of mathematical methods (especially the probabilistic and statistical) for risk analysis. In theory, the risks are the following types of mathematical models: direct, inverse and research problems of sensitivity. In direct problems of risk assessment associated with the determination of its level, is based on a priori known information. In inverse problems imposes limits on one or more input parameters varied to meet specified limits on the level of acceptable risk. The basic idea of sensitivity studies, applied due to the inevitable imprecision of the original information is a vulnerability, the degree of variability of output indicators in relation to variations in model parameters (probability distribution areas changes in certain variables, etc.). Findings of the study the sensitivity of the investment project reflects the degree of reliability of the analysis of project results. In the case of the unreliability of the analyst will forced to implement one of the following: clarify the parameters, the inaccuracy of which is the most significant result in the distortion, change the methods of processing raw data in order to reduce sensitivity of the response, change the mathematical model for analysis of project risks, to abandon the quantitative analysis of the business risk of the project. To avoid the errors described, after the development of Business Plan recommend ordering the expertise of the business plan (investment projects) have a third party. Remember that the effect of underestimating the risks today, you risk losing your money tomorrow.